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Walt Disney (DIS) Moat and Fair Value

Last Updated:

Oct 28, 2024

Moat Rating:

Wide

Fair Price:

$120

Overview

The Walt Disney Company, founded in 1923, is a diversified international family entertainment and media enterprise. Disney operates through four primary business segments: Media Networks, Parks, Experiences and Products, Studio Entertainment, and Direct-to-Consumer & International. Its strong portfolio of brands, franchises, and characters has made it a household name worldwide.

Recent Performance

Disney's stock price is basically flat so far in 2024, the company reported its 2024 fiscal third quarter earnings, and updated that its combined streaming business became profitable. CEO Bob Iger anticipates continued direct-to-consumer (DTC) profitability in the final quarter of the fiscal year. The streaming business has significantly boosted Disney's profits this year, alongside successful hit movies. This profitability and success indicate that Disney's growth is expected to continue for years to come.

Moat Analysis

  • Brand Strength: Disney has one of the strongest brands globally, recognized and loved by millions. Its characters and franchises (e.g., Mickey Mouse, Star Wars, Marvel) are iconic and generate significant consumer loyalty and merchandising revenue.

  • Intellectual Property: Disney's portfolio of intellectual property is unparalleled. This includes movies, TV shows, characters, and franchises that are monetized across various platforms, including theme parks, merchandise, and media networks.

  • Diversified Business Segments: Disney operates in various segments such as Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Direct-to-Consumer & International. This diversification reduces risk and creates multiple revenue streams.

  • Economies of Scale: Disney benefits from economies of scale, particularly in its media networks and studio entertainment segments. Its large-scale operations allow it to negotiate better deals and reduce costs. I would say that this one is a more moderate moat.

  • Technological Integration: Disney has made significant investments in technology, especially with the launch of Disney+. This positions the company well in the competitive streaming market, leveraging its extensive content library. Same here, a more moderate moat.

  • Distribution Network: Disney’s extensive distribution network, including its own streaming service (Disney+), cable networks (ESPN, ABC), and theatrical releases, ensures widespread reach of its content.

Financial Analysis

Disney has shown impressive financial recovery and growth from 2020 to 2023, with significant improvements in revenue, profitability, and cash flow. The company's solid balance sheet and consistent cash flow generation provide a strong foundation for ongoing investment in its strategic initiatives, such as expanding its streaming services and enhancing its global entertainment offerings.


Given the robust financial health and operational efficiency, Disney is well-positioned for future growth, making it an attractive long-term investment option. The company's ability to leverage its wide moat and diversified business segments should continue to drive financial performance and shareholder value.

  • Revenue and Profitability: Disney has demonstrated consistent revenue growth from 2020 to 2023, with revenues increasing from $65.39 billion in 2020 to approximately $88.30 billion in 2023. This recovery and growth were driven by the resurgence of its Parks, Experiences, and Products segment post-pandemic, as well as continued expansion in its Direct-to-Consumer services, particularly Disney+. Disney's financial performance shows a positive trajectory with growing revenues and expanding margins, indicating effective recovery strategies and operational efficiency post-pandemic.

    • 2023 Revenue: $88.30 billion, up from $82.72 billion in 2022.

    • Net Income: $5.20 billion in 2023, showing strong profitability improvement from $3.91 billion in 2022.

    • Operating Margin: Improved to 8.5% in 2023 from 7.45% in 2022, reflecting better cost management and increased efficiency across its business segments.

  • Balance Sheet Strength: Disney's balance sheet remains robust, with total assets increasing from $201.55 billion in 2020 to $215.45 billion in 2023. During the same period, total liabilities have also increased slightly but remain manageable, reflecting a stable financial position. Disney's balance sheet health is strong, with a well-managed debt load and substantial asset base, supporting long-term financial stability.

    • 2023 Total Assets: $215.45 billion, up from $209.10 billion in 2022.

    • Total Liabilities: $111.50 billion in 2023, up from $108.95 billion in 2022.

    • Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Maintained around 0.56 in 2023, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging debt for growth without overextending financial obligations.

  • Cash Flow Analysis: Disney's cash flow generation has been solid, with consistent growth in operating cash flow, which increased from $6.67 billion in 2020 to $9.10 billion in 2023. Free cash flow has similarly improved, reaching $5.80 billion in 2023. Disney's strong cash flow generation underpins its ability to fund operations, invest in future growth, and manage its financial obligations effectively, positioning the company for sustained success.

    • 2023 Operating Cash Flow: $9.10 billion, showing strong cash generation capabilities.

    • Free Cash Flow: $5.80 billion in 2023, up from $5.21 billion in 2022, providing the company with ample liquidity to invest in growth opportunities and service debt.

Risk To Consider

  • Intense competition in the streaming industry (e.g., Netflix, Amazon Prime)

  • Economic downturns affecting discretionary spending in parks and resorts

  • Regulatory and geopolitical risks impacting international operations

Outlook

Disney’s profitable streaming business and successful movies have significantly boosted its financial performance, with revenue and earnings surpassing expectations. Growing cash flows and active share buybacks reflect management’s confidence. While concerns about the theme park industry and Hulu acquisition costs have impacted market sentiment, these are seen as overblown. Disney's diversified revenue streams and strong brand position it well for continued growth.

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